Does the statistic that about 30 percent to 40 percent of pathways are closed after the first outpatient appointment, as cited in the oral statement on 27 January 2026, include patients whose pathways were closed because they started their first definitive treatment, and patients who died or refused treatment, as the term “closed pathways” does on StatsWales's data?
Of all pathways referred for a first outpatient appointment, 30% to 40% are closed at that stage, with the remainder going forward for further consultation, diagnostic tests or treatment.
Pathways can be closed at the first outpatient stage for a variety of reasons including:
- Treatment is not necessary
- Medication is prescribed
- Patient did not attend the appointment
- Patient died before the appointment
This is consistent with the description of closed pathways given on StatsWales. In all cases the closure of a pathway is a clinical decision.
The 30% to 40% figure is based on a sample of 120,000 pathways since August 2025.