Is the Government aware of how the UK Treasury spends the £30 million per year of revenue that the Welsh student finance system generates for the Treasury each year?
Student loan repayment modelling is a complex, fast-moving area and the analysis produced by London Economics et al. provides one viewpoint of the situation at a particular point in time – in this case, amidst changes in UK Government and prior to most recent general election. The fast-moving nature of student loan repayment modelling is demonstrated by the fact that Welsh Government internal modelling currently forecasts a positive RAB rate, thus contradicting the notion of any ‘surplus’. English RAB rates published by DfE[3] are also higher than those produced in the referenced analysis. The methodology for modelling student loans in England can be found here[4], with Welsh Government using an adapted version of the model.
[3] https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/student-loan-forecasts-for-england
[4] https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england