What analysis has the Government undertaken to explore why Wales is an outlier in generating surplus revenue through the Welsh student finance system, in contrast to the position in England, Scotland and the north of Ireland, as reported in a publication by London Economics, the Nuffield Foundation and the HEPI?
Student loan repayment modelling is a complex, fast-moving area and the analysis produced by London Economics et al. provides one viewpoint of the situation at a particular point in time – in this case, amidst changes in UK Government and prior to most recent general election. The fast-moving nature of student loan repayment modelling is demonstrated by the fact that Welsh Government internal modelling currently forecasts a positive RAB rate, thus contradicting the notion of any ‘surplus’. English RAB rates published by DfE[3] are also higher than those produced in the referenced analysis. The methodology for modelling student loans in England can be found here[4], with Welsh Government using an adapted version of the model.
[3] https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/student-loan-forecasts-for-england
[4] https://explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/methodology/student-loan-forecasts-for-england