What projections has Welsh Government made of the number of nursery and primary school pupils in Wales up to 2028?
The responsibility for the planning of school places rests with local authorities. Local authorities must keep under review the extent to which their existing pattern of school provision meets current and forecast demand for school places and the requirements of delivering the modern curriculum.
As local authorities hold this data, they continue to voluntarily provide it to the Welsh Government so that information on school capacity and uptake continues to be available to inform all Wales policy on the planning of school places. Welsh Government cannot comment on the validity of the projections provided.
In 2023, Welsh Government data shows that there were 32,496 nursery aged pupils and 240,356 primary aged pupils in Wales for a total of 272,852.
Projections by both the Welsh Government and local authorities indicate a fall in nursery and primary pupil numbers to below 240,000 by 2028.