Will the Minister provide a projection for the number of teachers in Wales in each of the next ten years?
The Welsh Government does not provide long-term projections for the number of future teachers required due to fluctuations in several key variables over time. However, a Teacher Planning Supply Model (TPSM) is used to derive the number of new teachers required to enter through Initial Teacher Education (ITE) each year for local authority maintained primary and secondary schools in Wales, including through-age schools, on an annual basis. The model allows for certain variables to be changed to look at impact on the need for new teachers. These include changes to:
- the pupil-teacher ratios over time,
- wastage rates for teachers leaving the profession,
- the percentage split of entrants through re-entrants and ITE courses and actual ITE intake compared to historical ITE allocations.
The output from the model informs the one-year ITE allocations for Wales for primary and secondary phases.