Has the methodology of the Teacher Planning Supply Model (TPSM) for Wales changed at all since its first use in 2007-2008?
The Teacher Planning and Supply Model (TPSM), introduced in 2007/08, is a statistical model that forecasts the number of teachers needed in Wales for future years. The model was reviewed in 2018, following the implementation of a new ITE accreditation process, to calculate allocations in a timelier manner and to allow sensitivity analysis of the impact of changes in key variables (including pupil-teacher ratios, wastage rates and percentage of entrants through ITE). More recently, the model has been updated to account for the extent to which allocations are anticipated to be met based on historical trends and to allow the model to produce projections over a three-year period (previously the model projected need for one year only). This updated model will be used to calculate allocations required for 2023/24, and to give indications of possible allocations for 2024/25 and 2025/26.