What assessment has the Cabinet Secretary made of the effect to the Welsh Government's funding as a result of the UK Government's decision to change the personal injury discount rate?
The announcement of the personal injury discount rate change by the Lord Chancellor will clearly have significant implications across the public and private sector. The Welsh Government had engaged with HM Treasury and received reassurance that all devolved administrations will have access to the same level of support as in England to meet the costs arising from these changes. In line with established funding principles, we would expect the UK Government to meet all costs arising in Wales from the change in rates, as these result solely from a UK policy decision.
For the Welsh Government the primary impacts identified of a change in discount rate will be upon the liabilities of the Welsh Risk Pool (WRP) for clinical negligence and other personal injury claims against the NHS in Wales and the potential impact upon indemnification arrangements for GPs.
Initial broad estimates indicate a potential impact of £60m upon Welsh Government provisions in 2016/17 however, further detailed calculation is required and revised actuarial Ogden tables are anticipated reflecting the new rate towards the end of March 2017. The second supplementary budget tabled on 7 February 2017 included contingency for this cost.
The impact of the discount rate change on GPs in England will be estimated by Department of Health in consultation with GPs and Medical Defence Organisations. Once this has been estimated, the consequential impact for GPs in Wales will be established.