What assessments have the Welsh Government made on the impact of EU tariffs and non-tariff barriers on jobs in Wales, if the UK leaves the Single Market and Customs Union?
We remain clear that having full and unfettered access to the EU Single Market for goods, services and capital is a top priority for us, in order to protect jobs and the Welsh economy. It is vital that businesses in Wales are not disadvantaged through unnecessary trade barriers such as tariffs, quotas or technical barriers to trade.
Extensive analytical and policy work is underway covering both economic and broader issues – taking into account different potential future models and outcomes – which is directly contributing to Ministerial discussions on priorities. We are also engaging widely with stakeholders to gain their first hand insights.
Leaving the EU Single Market and Customs Union would have very far-reaching and, in most respects, detrimental impacts on many sectors. Sectors we are considering include, but are not limited to Advanced Manufacturing and Materials; Agriculture, Food and Drink, Fisheries; Creative Industries; Energy; Financial Services and Professional and Business Services; Higher Education and Research; Infrastructure, Construction, Housing; Tourism; Consumer and Retail; Water and Waste; Defence; Life Sciences; and Digital and Telecoms. However, it is not possible to forecast with certainty the precise impact on jobs in Wales at this stage. Analysis undertaken so far has indicated that, in addition to an impact on jobs, over the long run, significant negative effects are likely to take the form of lower levels of GVA, real wages, incomes, and tax revenues than would otherwise have been expected.
As well as identifying areas of potential vulnerability, we are also seeking to identify potential opportunities in sectors such as tourism, which may benefit from the weaker sterling exchange rate seen since the referendum result.
This work will continue over the coming months as more detail emerges on the potential future economic relationship once the UK leaves the EU. The work will continue to include extensive engagement with business, the public sector, trade unions, the third sector and a range of experts.